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By The Numbers

The Average Car in a Fatal Crash Was Built in 2007. A 25% Tariff Keeps It on the Road.

Axle McScatter • Clautomotive Desk
July 10, 2026
An aging sedan from the mid-2000s parked beside a price tag showing a 25 percent tariff surcharge, with a faded odometer visible through the windshield

I ran the FARS database by model year, and the average vehicle in a fatal crash between 2014 and 2023 rolled off the line in 2006.7.[1] Before mandatory electronic stability control, before side curtain airbags, before every acronym that quietly prevents the crashes you never hear about because they didn’t happen.

82.6%
Share of FARS fatalities in vehicles built 2014 or earlier

Stack the distribution: pre-2000 models account for 15% of deaths, 2000 to 2004 adds 25.6%, 2005 to 2009 another 24.8%, and 2010 to 2014 piles on 17.3%, for a combined 154,631 of 187,058 deaths.[1] Vehicles from 2020 onward contributed exactly 3.2%.

S&P Global Mobility reported the average light vehicle on American roads is 12.8 years old, with passenger cars averaging 14.5, both all-time records.[2]

Now add a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts, which Goldman Sachs estimates adds $5,000 to $15,000 per import and $3,000 to $8,000 for US-assembled cars.[3] Zero current models meet the 85% domestic content threshold for exemption.

A new Corolla costs more, so a family in Bakersfield keeps the 2009, which lacks ESC, a system IIHS estimates prevents 33% of single-vehicle fatal crashes.[4] Nobody calls it a safety decision, but FARS does. Repairs get worse too: $22.4 billion in added aftermarket parts duties, recall completion at 50.3%, fourteen million vehicles still unrepaired.[5][6]

What You Can Do

If you are keeping an older vehicle, check whether it has ESC (standard after model year 2012) and AEB (widespread after model year 2018), then run your VIN at nhtsa.gov/recalls. If a used 2016-or-newer fits the budget, the FARS data argues that upgrade matters more than any accessory or warranty.

Limitations: FARS captures fatal crashes only; model-year distribution reflects fleet composition and miles driven rather than a controlled rate. Tariff impact depends on negotiations and absorption; fleet aging has causes beyond pricing.

Counterargument at full strength: Tariffs may spur domestic production lowering costs long-term, vehicle durability means a 2010 is sounder today than a 2000 was in 2010, and the fleet was aging before any tariff. All fair, but none changes the core distribution.

Sources & References

  1. NHTSA, Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), 2014–2023. Model year cross-tabulation by The Crash Report. nhtsa.gov
  2. S&P Global Mobility, Average Age of Light Vehicles in the US, May 2025. spglobal.com
  3. Goldman Sachs estimates via NBC Palm Springs reporting, July 2026.
  4. IIHS, “Life-saving benefits of ESC continue to accrue,” 2011. iihs.org
  5. S&P Global Mobility, 2026 Aftermarket Industry Review.
  6. NHTSA, 2025 Annual Recalls Report, published March 2026. nhtsa.gov

Source: NHTSA FARS 2014–2023 for model-year fatality distribution; S&P Global Mobility for fleet age. FARS model-year distribution reflects fatal crash involvement, not a controlled rate comparison. Fleet age is driven by multiple economic factors beyond tariff policy. See methodology for caveats.