One in Ten Crash Deaths Is Now a Pedestrian. In 2015, It Was One in 25.

I ran the numbers. Then I ran them again. They didn't get better. According to the Governors Highway Safety Association's full-year 2025 report, released July 14, pedestrians now account for 10.1% of all U.S. crash fatalities. First time at double digits since at least 2015.^[1] A decade ago, that share was 4%. That's a 152% increase.

Drivers killed 6,732 pedestrians in 2025. That count is down 7% from 2024, the third straight annual decline, and GHSA celebrated accordingly. Sixteen consecutive quarters of fewer total roadway deaths. Progress. Sort of. Because 6,732 is still 22.5% higher than the 2015 toll, and roughly 70% above the 2009 floor.^[1] The count is dropping. The share is climbing. Those two facts coexist because in-vehicle deaths are plummeting while pedestrian deaths drift down at a fraction of that pace.

Why the divergence? Two forces are working in opposite directions. Modern vehicles have become remarkably good at saving occupants. Side curtain airbags, electronic stability control, better structural design, automatic emergency braking. Inside the cabin, the decade of engineering investment is measurable in body counts. Outside the cabin? That same engineering investment made vehicles taller, heavier, and blunter. GHSA's own data shows tall, blunt front ends are associated with a 43.6% increase in pedestrian fatality risk compared to low, sloped profiles.^[1]

Then there's distraction. In 2019, about 15% of all crash fatalities involved distracted driving or walking. By 2024, distraction was cited in 39% of pedestrian fatalities and 22% of driver fatalities.^[2] A 160% increase for pedestrians in five years. Some of that is better reporting and broader definitions. Some of it is phones.

Rural roads are where the ratio is worst. In 2016, 10.4% of rural crashes killed a pedestrian. By 2024, that had risen to 15.1%, a 45% increase. Higher speeds, no sidewalks, longer EMS response times. Urban areas saw a similar climb, from 5.1% in 2018 to 9.2% in 2024.^[2] The pedestrian share is rising everywhere. It's just rising faster where the infrastructure was never built.

California accounted for more than half of the 2025 national decline by itself, with 239 fewer pedestrian deaths, a 22.4% drop. Speed-limit reforms, Vision Zero investments, and in-vehicle alert pilot programs appear to be paying off.^[1] North Carolina, meanwhile, went the other direction: up 32%. Twenty-eight states declined. Seventeen got worse. California is carrying the national average.

The total economic toll of pedestrian fatalities sits at roughly $90 billion annually, covering medical costs, legal costs, lost wages, and deprived quality of life.^[1] It is, by a wide margin, the most expensive category of traffic death per victim.

Strongest counterargument: The raw count is falling. Three consecutive years of decline. Sixteen straight quarters of improvement overall. If the trend holds, the share might stabilize as fleet turnover brings more pedestrian AEB systems to the road. IIHS now requires crash-prevention systems for its 2026 safety awards, and more than 77% of new models already meet the standard.

Limitations: GHSA's state-reported data differs slightly from NHTSA's federal counts (FARS). The 10.1% figure represents the GHSA's state-submitted preliminary data, not the finalized FARS dataset. Distraction attribution is notoriously inconsistent across jurisdictions and reporting methods; the 39% figure likely reflects both more distraction and better coding of it. And the 43.6% pedestrian fatality risk increase for tall front ends comes from an IIHS study using different crash geometry than FARS records.

What you can do: Check whether your vehicle has pedestrian AEB (not all "AEB" systems detect people on foot). When walking, assume no driver sees you, especially at dusk: nearly half of pedestrian fatalities happen between 6 PM and midnight. If you're shopping for a new car and live in a walkable area, the front-end profile matters. Sedans and low-nosed crossovers give pedestrians a survivable impact angle. Tall pickups and body-on-frame SUVs don't. A vehicle's crashworthiness rating tells you how well it protects its occupants. It tells you nothing about the person it hits.