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The Gap

America’s Best-Selling Sedans Are Its Deadliest. Its Best-Selling SUVs Are Its Safest.

Before you sign that lease, you might want to see this. We ranked 274 vehicles by fleet size, then checked their FARS fatality rates, and found that America’s three best-selling sedans kill at 2.2 times the rate of niche sedans. Cross the lot to the SUV section and the math inverts completely: the three best-selling SUVs are eight times safer than the bottom three.[1]

2.2×
Fatality rate of top-selling sedans vs. niche models

Camry, Civic, Corolla. Combined fleet: 7.5 million vehicles. Average fatality rate: 2.04 deaths per 100M VMT. Meanwhile, the Lexus LS, Jaguar X-TYPE, and Toyota xA average 0.91.[1] The cars everyone trusts are the ones doing the most damage per mile.

SUVs flip the script. RAV4 (0.19), CR-V (0.53), Equinox (0.36) average 0.36 deaths per 100M VMT. Bottom sellers like the Land Cruiser (6.27) and Montero (1.91) average 2.89.[1] In the SUV aisle, the bestseller badge is practically a safety certification. Sports cars follow the sedan pattern: Mustang, Camaro, and Challenger average 3.49 while niche alternatives like the Miata average 1.36.[1] Pickups and vans show no meaningful split.

Why? Fleet age. Camry has been dominant for decades, so FARS counts deaths in 2004 models alongside 2022 models. Those older Camrys predate the 2012 ESC mandate and lack AEB entirely.[2][3] Popular SUVs are newer: the RAV4 and CR-V surged as unibody crossovers on modern platforms. Their fleets skew younger, their safety tech skews current.

Fair objection: a 2022 Camry is not a 2005 Camry, but FARS aggregates them into one line. If we isolated model years, the bestseller penalty might shrink. True. But aggregate is what kills people today. A randomly selected Camry on the road right now is twice as lethal per mile as a randomly selected Lexus LS. Fleet composition is destiny. FARS also captures only fatal crashes, and VMT estimates carry ±15% uncertainty for low-volume models.[4]

What you can do: If you are sedan shopping, do not trust the nameplate. Check IIHS ratings for the specific model year you are buying.[5] A 2023 Camry and a 2008 Camry share a badge and nothing else. Shopping crossover SUVs? Popularity actually is a decent safety proxy here. And if someone calls the Mustang safe because it sells well, show them its 6.02 fatality rate. Bestseller is not a safety feature. In sedans, it is the opposite.

Sources & References

  1. NHTSA, Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), 2014–2023. Fleet and VMT estimates from industry sales data and NHTS mileage averages. nhtsa.gov
  2. NHTSA, FMVSS No. 126: Electronic Stability Control, final rule effective 2012. govinfo.gov
  3. IIHS, “Life-saving benefits of ESC continue to accrue,” 2011. iihs.org
  4. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). nhts.ornl.gov
  5. IIHS vehicle ratings. iihs.org/ratings

Source: NHTSA FARS 2014–2023. Rates are deaths per 100M VMT (estimated). “Bestseller” = estimated fleet size, not single-year sales. See methodology for caveats.