The Lincoln Aviator Is Predicted to Get 23x More Recalls Than Any Car on the Road

Buy a Lincoln Aviator and keep it for its natural life, and iSeeCars projects you will receive 23.4 times more safety recall notices than the owner of an average new car.^[1] That is the worst predicted recall trajectory of any vehicle currently sold in America.

On July 20, another one landed. NHTSA campaign 26V-series, covering 160,391 Aviators from model years 2020 through 2027 and another 227,520 Ford Explorers from 2020 through 2026.^[2] The defect: a switch on the second-row outboard seats can bind or jam in the down position, and when it does, the seat tips, slides, or both while the vehicle is moving. During a crash, an occupant in that seat is not restrained where they should be.

Ford learned about the problem through warranty claims and field reports. The remedy involves inspecting and replacing affected seat-track assemblies at no cost.

That recall hit 16 days after Ford launched its "Quality First" advertising blitz, built around a JD Power Initial Quality Study win announced June 25.^[2] "We put quality first," the tagline reads. "Now Ford is first in quality." Ford plans the messaging broadly.

Worth noting what "initial quality" actually measures: JD Power surveys owners after 90 days, while recalls typically surface after months or years of accumulated field data. A vehicle can ace a 90-day survey and then spend the next decade mailing you recall letters, which is precisely what the Aviator does. iSeeCars built its prediction by analyzing recall rates for model years 2017 through 2025, and the Aviator sat alone at the top of the chart, with no other vehicle within striking distance of its 23.4x multiplier.

Ford leads the industry in 2026 with 60 recalls, according to NHTSA's dashboard, against second-place Chrysler at 24 and GM at 19.^[2] Spokesman Mike Levine says the number is falling, down 38% from the same window in 2025, and that the defects mainly hit vehicles designed between 2013 and 2020.^[2] "Our newest 2026 and 2027 models make up just 3.3% of this year's recall volume through June," Levine told USA Today.

The Aviator entered production in 2019, squarely inside the 2013-to-2020 design window Levine describes. So when Ford says its design-era problem is fading, the Aviator is the problem they are admitting to. It shares its CD6 platform with the Explorer, which has its own recall resume and 3,797 deaths in FARS over the decade ending 2023.

The Aviator's FARS fatality rate is 1.15 per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, about 5% above the national average of 1.10.^[3] The Explorer, on the same platform, runs at 1.54. Eighteen percent of Aviator drivers killed in fatal crashes tested positive for impairment, which is slightly below the 20% national average.^[4]

There is exactly one generous reading of the Aviator's recall record, and it goes like this: maybe the avalanche of recalls is actually catching defects before they kill people, and the Aviator's lower death rate relative to the Explorer is proof. That reading requires you to believe Ford's recall process is working so well that it is saving lives through sheer recall volume, which is an unusual way to sell a $55,000 luxury SUV.

Ford operates under a 2024 consent order with NHTSA that installed third-party oversight of its recall processes and required specific safety expenditures.^[5] The consent order followed years of escalating recall numbers, from a manageable volume to 153 campaigns in 2025 covering 12.9 million vehicles, more than every other automaker combined. The Aviator is the consent order's mascot, the vehicle most likely to send you a letter, most likely to need a dealer visit, and most likely to have a defect you haven't heard about yet.

If you own one, check your VIN at nhtsa.gov/recalls. If you are shopping for one, the data says you should expect to receive recall notices roughly every four to six months for the life of the vehicle. No other car on sale carries that prediction.

Source: NHTSA FARS 2014–2023. The Aviator death count includes first- and second-generation models. FARS captures fatal crashes only; nonfatal injuries are not represented. See methodology for caveats.